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Original-Research: SBF AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu SBF AG

Unternehmen: SBF AG
ISIN: DE000A2AAE22

Anlass der Studie: Research report (Anno)
Empfehlung: Buy
Kursziel: 3.85 EUR
Letzte Ratingänderung: 
Analyst: Marcel Goldmann, Cosmin Filker

2018 financial year closed with a solid operating performance and further
cost structure improvement; Strong market positioning in the rail industry
growth sector and current record order backlog enabling long-term
profitable growth; Significant increase in profitability using economies of
scale as part of the growth path pursued; Target price: EUR 3.85
(previously: EUR 3.62); Rating: Buy
 
The SBF Group generated revenues of EUR 14.7 million in the 2018 financial
year, falling below the previous year's result of EUR 19.53 million due to
consolidation phases. According to the company, the lowest revenue results
are expected to be achieved after this decline, and as such, the company
expects revenue and earnings figures to increase starting in the 2019
financial year. At the operational level, the company achieved an operating
result (EBIT) close to the previous year's level at EUR 1.58 million
(previous year: EUR 1.67 million) despite an expected decline in revenue.
Net profits also grew slightly to EUR 1.39 million in the 2018 financial
year due to an improved financial result (previous year: EUR 1.36 million).
 
In the course of publishing its consolidated financial statements (FY
2018), SBF announced that it had a high order backlog of around EUR 31
million (as at: March 2019) and other proposals were also pending. We
assume that these proposals are several times the size of the current order
backlog and thus open up further significant business potential. For the
current 2019 financial year, SBF AG expects its core holding SBF
Spezialleuchten GmbH to achieve a revenue of EUR 17 million and a profit
before tax (EBT) of EUR 2 million.
 
After the consolidation phase of the last few years, the company is now in
growth mode and is striving to expand its business model as a system
provider for the railway technology industry. This is reflected, for
example, in the high order backlog announced by the company and the planned
investment initiative. Expanding the range of products and services
offered, increasing vertical integration and increasing
internationalisation are key elements of SBF's growth-orientated corporate
strategy in pursuit of this objective.
 
As part of the adopted growth trajectory, the company should be able to
profit from the increased investments that are expected to be made in the
global railway technology sector. A study conducted by SCI Verkehr found
that the current market volume for the global railway technology market is
EUR 183 billion. Researchers expect an average future market growth of 2.8%
(CAGR) for this segment by 2022. The planned regional expansion into new
railway technology markets and the planned increase of vertical and
horizontal integration should also have a positive impact on future
business development.
 
On this basis, we expect a profitable growth phase to begin in the current
2019 financial year which, according to our calculations, should amount to
EUR 17.7 million, EUR 19.5 million and EUR 22.4 million in revenue for the
current 2019 financial year as well as 2020 and 2021 respectively. With
strong revenue growth expected and developing economies of scale, net
earnings should also rise significantly to EUR 1.43 million, EUR 1.6
million and EUR 2.13 million respectively.
 
Given the Group's strong market positioning and growth path, as well as the
increased investments that are expected to be made in the global railway
technology sector, we have evaluated SBF AG using our DCF model, leading us
to calculate a fair value of EUR 3.85 per share (previously: EUR 3.62 per
share). On the basis of the current share price level, we are expecting
high price potential and have again awarded the shares a 'Buy' rating.
 
Note: In addition to the 2018 figures, which were slightly better than
expected, we have increased our stock target price particularly based on
the roll-over effect from systematically including the next estimate period
in our valuation model.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/18233.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Jörg Grunwald
Vorstand
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR. Beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,5b,6a,7,11);
Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: 
http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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Datum (Zeitpunkt)Fertigstellung: 04.06.19(09:24 Uhr)
Datum (Zeitpunkt) erste Weitergabe: 04.06.19(10:30 Uhr)

-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------


Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. 
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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